Lower Hudson Valley
2021 Q2 Market Report
Hello friends and Happy almost Fall,
I hope you're all enjoying the season and avoiding the heat and humidity. I've got a market update for you on our local area! Now that Q2 is well out of the way and all the data has been published, I'm here to inform you on how we're doing from the real estate perspective. If you'd rather not read through the entire report county-by-county, then scroll on down to the bottom for a quick recap.
But, let's get right into it and talk about how the Hudson Valley Real Estate Market fared in the Second Quarter of 2021.
In the graph above, each color bar represents the total residential sales in the second quarter of the past 4 years. This is where we are really starting to see year to year data compared with the initial effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Sales took a huge hit during Q2 last year before swinging back in the later months, and you can clearly see that, represented by the green bar in these graphs. Compared to last year, in every county there is a sharp increase in number of sales.
Now, let's go over the market report, in depth
What I'll Be Covering In This Report
Housing Affordability Index? What's that?
I chose to highlight the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) in the market reports going forward, as I think that it's an important factor to consider in today's society where wealth inequality is a huge issue. So what is it? It's a number that tells us how affordable a certain area is by comparing the median income in the area with the average house prices. A HAI of 100 means that the median household makes exactly 100% of what is needed to qualify for a mortgage* to purchase the average price of a home in that area.
So, for example, let's say that the average house in Townsville, NY costs $300,000. A house that costs $300,000 would require someone to make roughly 50K a year to qualify for that home. If the median household income in Townsville is 50K, the HAI for Townsville would be 100. If the average family income of Townsville was 25K, the HAI would be 50, meaning that families in Townsville only have 50% of the income necessary to buy the average house there.
*Housing Affordability Index assumes 20% down payment and that the mortgage is 25% of the family's gross income.
WESTCHESTER
Westchester, again, keeps at a steady incline with their 17.7% increase in median sales price, but I'd really like to draw attention to it's Housing Affordability Index (HAI). Westchester's HAI is at a 42 now, which means the average family in the county is making 42% of what it costs to qualify for a mortgage for the average price of a home in the area. The other counties come nowhere near this number. While rising prices is good, there is a point at where we need to take affordability into account, and Westchester is becoming more and more unaffordable for it's own residents.
PUTNAM
Putnam County, Westchester County's younger sibling had a great year as well, but with a huge drop in available inventory. This will partially make sense because it is the smallest of the 5 counties in our area, but it's not an anomaly because other counties dropped by more.Putnam's HAI may not seem like the biggest drop, but it went from 98 in 2020's Q2 to 78 in 2021 Q2. Previously, families in Putnam were making almost 100% what was needed to buy a house, now it's almost 3/4 of what is needed. That is not something to take lightly.
DUTCHESS
Dutchess County is coming in hot this quarter with some of the best numbers of the entire region. It has the highest year to year change in median sales price at an increase of 27.4% and while available inventory is still at a negative, it's the lowest of all 5 counties in the area. Dutchess is putting homes on the market quicker than the other counties, and it's seeing a higher median sales price as a result. If there's any indication that the market needs homes, it's right here. I'm proud of the county that I get to call home! You go, Dutchess County. Four for you, Dutchess County.
ORANGE
Orange County is having a pretty steady season right now, no stranger to the strong seller's market but also showing an insane drop in available inventory. There are 40.7% less homes available right now than there were at this point last year. Orange County always has lots and lots of new construction homes being put up, and the increase in the costs of production and the labor shortage may be contributing to this factor. New homes aren't being built at the rate that buyers need them. Thankfully, their HAI remains at the highest of the 5 counties at 130, but it is quickly dropping.
ROCKLAND
Speaking of staggering drops in available inventory, Rockland County is coming in with the most significant drop at 41.1%. It also has the lowest increase in median sales price among the 5 counties, but a 15.8% increase is nothing to laugh at. Another statistic not included to the left is the percentage of the original list price received, which for Rockland County is now 100.1%, very much due to the lack of available inventory. When something hits the market in Rockland, it's getting lots and lots of attention and strong offers as well.
SUMMARY
A general summary of how the Hudson Valley real estate market is doing is this: extremely well for sellers and buyers (who can afford it) alike. Due to the mass amounts of people leaving NYC to relocate up north, we have seen a huge increase in demand while supply has been kept low, which as economics shows, is driving prices straight up. The only saving grace is that interest rates remain at an historic low level. Seriously, interest rates are ridiculously low right now. And even if prices were to drop, interest rates would start climbing and that's what will kill you in the long run.
I'd also like to bring attention to the housing affordability index. Of the 5 counties I cover in this report, only 2 of them have an HAI above 100. That means in only 2 counties, families are making enough to qualify to buy homes in those counties, and those numbers are dropping, fast. With the influx of NYC money coming up, they are making it more and more unrealistic for current inhabitants of the Lower Hudson Valley to be able to buy a home for themselves. Yes, we still want to see a healthy market, but in a time of immeasurable wealth gaps, we need to keep an eye on our neighbors.
My personal opinion (which I remind you, is just an opinion), is that in the coming months, prices will stabilize. Not drop, but stabilize. While inventory is also historically low, it is slowly increasing and over time will meet the demand. WE NEED MORE HOMES ON THE MARKET! So, if you're a homeowner in the Hudson Valley and thinking of selling, now is a very good time to consider that.
What is Your Home Worth?
After reading this, you might be thinking that the market is in great shape if you're a seller, and you would be completely right. Now is an amazing time to sell, due to the low inventory market that every county is experiencing. High demand and low supply creates competition and drives up prices. If you're curious about what you might be able to get for your home, hop on over to my website at RupertoRealEstate.com and fill out the valuation form to get a free, hand crafted report. The report wont be created by a computer, I do each request myself since I don't trust computers to accurately valuate your home, even though they will take over the world one day.
Thanks for listening,
Anthony Ruperto
Licensed Real Estate Salesperson / J Philip Real Estate
522 N State Road, Suite 100,
Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510 United States